base case

Y10 Revenue

$2.56M

Gross product revenue

Y10 Clients

413

Active clients end of Y10

Break-even

Year 6

First profitable year

Y10 Cash Balance

$6.97M

Incl. external funding

10-Year P&L

YearTrialsClientsPriceRevenueArtist+MgrSalariesOpEx+MktgTotal ExpCash FlowBalance
Y14020.2$350$92K$38K$147K$180K$365K-$274K$1.18M
Y25137.8$364$171K$70K$162K$188K$421K-$250K$1.38M
Y36657.8$379$269K$108K$178K$198K$483K-$215K$1.61M
Y48482.0$394$396K$153K$196K$207K$557K-$161K$1.90M
Y5107111.0$409$560K$209K$216K$218K$643K-$84K$2.27M
Y6137146.8$426$772K$278K$237K$230K$745K$26K$2.74M
Y7176191.7$443$1.05M$365K$261K$243K$869K$182K$3.38M
Y8225248.8$461$1.42M$475K$287K$257K$1.02M$403K$4.23M
Y9288321.1$479$1.91M$615K$316K$273K$1.20M$709K$5.39M
Y10369413.2$498$2.56M$792K$347K$290K$1.43M$1.13M$6.97M

Revenue by Client Level

LevelY1Y2Y3Y4Y5Y6Y7Y8Y9Y10
Trials$9K$12K$16K$22K$29K$39K$52K$69K$92K$122K
Level I$20K$44K$75K$116K$168K$236K$325K$443K$600K$807K
Level II$28K$45K$66K$94K$131K$179K$242K$326K$437K$584K
Level III$9K$19K$32K$48K$69K$96K$131K$178K$240K$321K
Level IV$12K$23K$37K$55K$77K$105K$143K$193K$259K$346K
Level V$10K$18K$29K$42K$59K$81K$109K$147K$197K$263K
Level VI$4K$8K$13K$19K$27K$37K$50K$67K$90K$120K
Total$92K$171K$269K$396K$560K$772K$1.05M$1.42M$1.91M$2.56M

LTV · CAC · Contribution Margin — Y10 Snapshot

LTV uses Y10 price and level-specific renewal rate. CAC = marketing budget ÷ trials.

LevelY10 ClientsRenewalLTVY10 CACLTV / CACContrib Margin
Level I38.388%$149K$238627.0×67%
Level II45.986%$80K$238335.9×67%
Level III53.683%$33K$238140.2×68%
Level IV91.880%$19K$23879.4×68%
Level V91.878%$14K$23857.0×70%
Level VI91.873%$6K$23823.2×70%
Y10 CAC = $238 · Marketing budget = $88K · Trials = 369

Model Notes & Remaining Improvements

Level-specific renewal rates

Higher-value clients now model higher retention, exposing which tiers drive long-term value.

Annual compound price growth

4%/yr price growth replaces arbitrary step changes, adding ~$148/unit by Y10.

CAC connected to marketing spend

Marketing budget now feeds CAC metric. Currently Y10 CAC stays low — scale marketing as trials grow.

LTV/CAC by level

Premium levels (I–II) show high LTV/CAC ratios. Focus acquisition on those tiers.

Contribution margin by level

Exposes which levels cover direct costs well. Levels V–VI may be low-margin at scale.

Bear / Base / Bull scenarios

Toggle above applies multipliers to trial growth, conversion, and renewal simultaneously.

Define "units" explicitly

Revenue still depends on avg units per level. Is it sessions? Monthly slots? This must be defined before investor use.

Seasonal cash flow modeling

Arts education is highly seasonal. Annual model may hide mid-year cash crunches that need short-term credit.